Tasmania's population growth has slowed significantly since its peak in 2016-2021, raising concerns about the state's economic future. This slowdown is not just a local issue; it's a national conversation about the implications of a changing demographic landscape. The question on everyone's mind is: what does this mean for Tasmania's economy and its people?
The state's population growth rate has dropped to 0.3% annually, the lowest in the country. This is a stark contrast to the previous five years when Tasmania saw a surge in population, outpacing the national average. The Centre for Population predicts a concerning trend: by 2028-2029, Tasmania will become the first state to experience natural population decline, where deaths exceed births. This decline is driven by young adults leaving the state, and the future looks even bleaker with overseas migration expected to be the main driver of modest population growth.
The implications of this demographic shift are far-reaching. Tasmania's Treasury warns that low population growth could exacerbate existing challenges, including skill shortages and an aging population. This is a critical issue, as a smaller, older population will strain the state's economy and public services. By 2050, it's predicted that the median age of a Tasmanian will be around 48, and 28% of the population will be over 65. This will lead to increased healthcare spending and a shortage of skilled workers, impacting the state's productivity and economic growth.
The story of Tasmania's population shift is not just about numbers; it's about the lives of individuals. Take the example of Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner, who moved to Tasmania in 2018 with a dream of 'buckling down'. They arrived with little more than $500, a car, and no qualifications. Wagner took on an adult apprenticeship in welding and flipped mountain bikes on the side, all to get into the housing market. Their story is one of determination and success, but it also highlights the challenges faced by young Tasmanians. Access to childcare in Burnie, where they now live, is a problem, and the small-city life is a stark contrast to the mainland.
On the other hand, Ellie Warmbrunn, a 22-year-old, has left Tasmania for the sunshine and job opportunities of Queensland's Gold Coast. She's pursuing her career in journalism and creative writing, enjoying the lifestyle and the scope for development. This decision to leave is not unique; many young Tasmanians are choosing to move interstate, driven by the desire for better opportunities and a higher quality of life.
Despite the population slowdown, Tasmania's economy has shown resilience. The state has seen increased peak-hour traffic congestion and growth in outer suburbs, indicating a shift in population distribution. The municipality of Clarence has increased by 3,350 people, and Brighton, north of Hobart, by 2,030. However, other areas, like Hobart and Glenorchy, have seen population decline due to factors such as lower international student numbers. This mixed picture highlights the complex nature of the state's demographic changes.
The challenge for Tasmania is to attract more people while addressing the underlying issues that drive people away. The state's Treasury suggests that lower population growth could improve housing affordability, which could, in turn, lift interstate migration. The construction of the Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart is seen as a potential drawcard for young workers from across Australia. However, experts like Lisa Denny and Saul Eslake argue that basic government services need improvement to change the population trajectory. Eslake emphasizes the need to fix education and health systems to arrest the outflow of people, especially younger ones.
In conclusion, Tasmania's population slowdown is a critical issue that requires a multifaceted approach. The state must address the challenges of an aging population, improve basic services, and create opportunities for young people. While the future may be uncertain, one thing is clear: the demographic shift will have profound implications for Tasmania's economy and society, and the state must act now to secure its long-term prosperity.
